By Valerie Graham

Where Prigozhin gone?

One wag joked that 10 falling from a plane was neater than falling out of 10 windows but 3 were innocent crew.  The whole Wagner high command was taken out including co-founder and neo fascist Utkin. Prigozhin didn’t spend much time kicking his heels in Belarus like the few thousand Wagnerites who stuck with him, then started drifting away. He was flying regularly in and out of Russia and apparently met with Putin at least twice. Whether it was from bravado or arrogance, he claimed to believe Putin would not do anything to him. I wonder if recent events in Niger convinced him he had atoned.  The leader of the military coup there turned up at Putin’s recent Africa summit. Prigozhin had just returned from Mali and announced on his channel he was recruiting again.

At the time of the mutiny, internal polling showed Prigozhin to be really popular. He topped a poll in 17 regions and Putin in 21, Putin would have known this and he needed to cut his legs off first. He offered the Wagnerites to remain in Ukraine as a unit under their field commander but Prigozhin slapped him down. In Belarus they had no purpose other than to allow Lukashenko and Putin to taunt Poland and they were used to being relatively well paid. It is reported that more of them are signing up with the MOD while others are threatening revenge. Apparently, a Wagner burial ground has been bulldozed and concreted over already whilst shrines to Wagner are popping up.

At time of writing, it is not clear if the plane exploded because of a bomb or was shot down by air defences which do sometimes target civilian planes, Putin travels by private train. It is reported that about an hour before take-off, a man and a women looked round it as prospectives buyers and its certainly true that Prigozhin was selling assets in St Petersburg. It certainly would have been pay back for his downing of a military plane during the mutiny. But most importantly he humiliated Putin and his revenge is to behead Wagner and reassert his dominance and intolerance of any betrayal. It is reported remaining Wagnerites have been asked to swear an oath of allegiance.

Whilst a number of countries are helping Russia bust sanctions, it is short on open political support for the invasion   and occupation. Gas junkie Hungary is doing its best and seemingly acting as a contact and funder of the American right.  In arch loyalist Assads Syria there have been big mobilisations recently in a number of cities demanding withdrawal of Russian troops among other demands.

There is a move to expand the BRICS alliance, six countries have recently joined but South Africa seems to be the leading voice.  Given only 19 heads turned up to his Africa Summit when the last one attracted over 30, Putin must know that Wagner is still useful there. The MOD has however moved to close Wagner down in Africa and Syria which is the reason Prigozhin visited.  Whether the operation will be rescued in Africa under new leadership remains to be seen. There are certainly a number of other private militias operating and close to Putin.

Wider Reprisals.

Surovikin known as General Armageddon who disappeared after the mutiny has just been relieved of his post. Girkin another outspoken ultranationalist critic of the MOD has been arrested and imprisoned. Criticism will not be tolerated.

Amongst the sacked officers were Major-General Ivan Popov. He had voiced regular soldiers’ criticisms of the situation on the front in Ukraine. Major General Vladimir Seliverstov, the commander of Russia’s 106th VDV airborne Division, has also been given his marching orders.  Shoigu and Gerasimov were reappointed.

Navalny was given a sentence of a further 19 years in prison. Kara Murza and Butkevych had appeals dismissed and lengthy sentences confirmed.

The pace of arrests for expressing anti-war sentiments has accelerated and there is a steady stream of Sudden Russian Death Syndrome among the elite,

Morale at the Front in Ukraine

I don’t want to say much about the Ukrainian counteroffensive except that there has been inertia on the part of the West in supplying weapons fast enough. Some analysts believe that Ukraine has been consistently underestimated and the operational conditions are not understood by personnel who would never advance in the way the Ukrainians have without massive air cover.

The Commander of Russia’s Vostok Battalion has said that Russia cannot win and the rate of desertion is increasing. Soldiers complain of being sent into a meat grinder and of lack of rotation of troops so they are exhausted. There are significant deaths and Putin has recently extended the age for Russians to be conscripted which led to a number of conscription offices being firebombed.

The General Staff also reported that drinking and drug use among newly-conscripted troops has increased with such individuals leaving their positions and hiding in abandoned buildings.

No wonder Russia is pushing for a ceasefire again.

Economic Impacts of the Mutiny

Against a background of sanctions amongst the consequences of which are reduced oil revenues, the mutiny seems to have caused a large-scale flight of capital from the banking system. Deposits held there by individuals and other legal entities were the lowest since 2008. This was one of the reasons for the collapse of the rouble, the balance of payments surplus was 93% less than at the same time last year. Economic costs of invasion are mounting.

War costs are still escalating and Putin has issued 25year war bonds, Because of labour shortages he has moved to lift restrictions on the work of minors and it is reported that in Tatarstan children are being employed to make drones.

Power

Putin may believe he has wiped the slate clean by dealing with Wagner but that may be wishful thinking. The mutiny weakened him and the war party with Prigozhin dead, Girkin in prison and Shoigu and Gerasimov with very little credibility. Professor Yuri Feltshtinsky believes Putin has no real support and that power lies with the FSB.   Mikhail Khodorkovsky says that we use the term oligarch incorrectly and I think its true that an oligarch is both wealthy and politically powerful. The movers will be oligarchs whose names are not familiar to us whose political influence has enabled them to amass fortunes but evade sanctions.  Feltshtinsky thinks December is the usual month for presidents to resign.

Ukrainian Spymaster Budanov claims that Putin has not been seen in public since June 2022. He is reported to use body doubles.    Peskov disappeared for 3 weeks after saying Putin would win the 2024 election because elections in Russia were not democratic.  May be this is more wishful thinking like the hope that Trump will win again in the US. Those oligarchs may just be thinking about their assets and how to prevent Russia becoming a failed state.