By Val Graham

What happened was a dramatic falling out among thieves as a consequence of the invasion going very badly for Russia.  Putin heads up various factions. some of them military whose heads all owe allegiance to the Capo. They may hate each other. You can see the separatists under Girkin as one and they have been sidelined while the MOD has moved to shut down Wagner PMCs operation in Russia. On July 1st it would have become illegal.  The factions all loathe Prigozhin whose troops have been the most effective fighters. He has made no secret of his belief that invading Ukraine from 2014 was a mistake brought about by the ambition of Shoigu and the greed of other military and state officials. He stops short of blaming Putin. His hatred of Shoigu and Gerasimov started in Syria.

Prigozhin is a made man, a billionaire with a lucrative catering company as well as running a state arm’s length company which is called private. Wagner has operated in 15 other countries as part of Russia’s foreign policy and Putin admits to paying a billion dollars for its Ukraine effort. But the MOD want him out and the rivalries have impeded their war effort.   His popularity stems from his credibility as a critic of the war.  It is reported that he has been planning his move for 8 months and at least 10 units of regular troops joined him. Generals knew? Id be amazed if Putin didn’t. He marched almost all the way to Moscow, shot down an Ilyushin killing 9 personnel, entered military depots including a nuclear weapon one with little opposition.  A counter operation in Rostov saw 40% of law enforcers stay home. Some workers did try to unscrew the tarmac in front of them but not a peep from the army. Shoigu was evacuated from Rostov and put under protective custody. Panic in Moscow, private planes took off and so did Putin’s. 

So why did the march turn back? Whilst I’m sure it’s true that Prigozhin’s family and   assets were threatened, what seems significant is that there was little open support for them in Moscow whoever was in on it. Most importantly there was no popular mass mobilisation.  The opposition who could have called for antiwar demos would not be on Prigozhin’s contact list and indeed that was not the ostensible aim of his action which was to preserve Wagner PMC. It ended up a bit like petitioning the Tsar.  Surovikin chickened out and arrested were a serving FSB officer with rifle and a couple dressed as furries. Being in the know and being prepared to act as state officials is not the same thing.

Putin and Lukashenko hang together so Putin cobbled a deal where Wagner’s Prigozhin loyalists could decamp to Belarus but still be under his watchful eye. Luka got a rock bottom fix on gas until 2031.  He says Wagner can help train his army but I still wonder who is paying? Its reported Wagner troops were rounded up in Syria. Prigozhin is still confidently broadcasting.

Putin has definitely suffered a serious blow to his authority and credibility. The fact that it came from one of his favoured factions is not surprising given that everyone opposed to corruption and autocracy is locked up and civil protest ruthlessly suppressed. For the first time in his life, he hails lack of bloodshed. Slim Shady has been everywhere among adoring crowds and rewarding and awarding loyalists. Navalny as been put on trial again. Some generals have disappeared and it is reported Surovikin has been arrested and will be tried.

We may see further reprisals, an intensification of factional dispute and a further collapse of morale in the armed forces in Ukraine. It is reported that the remaining few of one unit all killed have refused to fight and the activity by soldiers’ wives has taken off again.

Whilst I agree the US should not be involved in any attempts at coup or regime change within Russia. I dont think there is a point to assuring Putin there is no interference particularly when that leads to denying Ukraine certain weapons or pressurising for restraint precisely when the terrain is advantageous inside Russia.  Putin will not believe you and he needs not to. He needs enemies and excuses. He is losing friends fast,

Now is the time to ensure Ukraine has what it needs to liberate itself and put lots of pressure on Putin to withdraw his men. I still believe Russia should be suspended from the UN until the invasion ends.

There should be a big focus on supporting and freeing political prisoners in Russia and Belarus and helping the democratic oppositions at home and abroad.  Freedom for political prisoners helps to strengthen the forces who can shape a democratic future for those countries and not the chaos of war among the mafia factions the west seems to fear.  It is not helpful to their cause that so many liberal democracies have themselves been influenced by Putin’s social conservatism and authoritarianism. The Russian Democratic Society is doing a good job for example on human rights abuses like treatment of gay citizens.